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Daily blurbs from the Guru
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Interesting occurrence in the RIFC this morning: As a result of an official stat change, I_Am_Canadian lost one point in last weekend’s game. The consequence is that his team drops from the #6 seed to the #7 seed, as he’s now 0.5 point behind Bonka (for the full season), instead of 0.5 point ahead. It will be interesting to see if/how that impacts the first round playoff games, since the 2/7 and 3/6 matchups are now changed. Fortunately, it only impacted the seedings, and not the overall playoff qualifications.
I added another daily contest affiliate to the RotoGuru family. Sortable stats and player salaries are now available for DraftKings. If you are looking for a daily contest alternative, DraftKings has a broad range of contest offerings, a well-designed and intuitive interface, and now – statistical analysis at RotoGuru. If you want to give it a look-see, please click on the DraftKings link to register.
12/3 - Wow, I am really slacking off on these “daily” blurbs. More like “every now and then” blurbs.
It looks like the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through Seattle. They effectively have a three game advantage, since the only two teams that are two games back (N.O. and Carolina) each lost to the Seahawks. And winning on the road in Seattle looks like a daunting proposition.
Home field advantage in the AFC is still up for grabs. Denver has the edge if they can win out, but New England would overtake them with a one-game shift in standings, based on the tiebreaker. And Kansas City, Indy, and Cincy are still in play, if Denver and the Pats should falter.
The RIFC leagues have completed the regular season. Eight teams from each 14-team league now advance to a three-week single-elimination playoff. For teams that have dominated through the regular season, this is the most maddening part of the season, as history shows that the top seed seldom prevails. I don’t have time to sift through all of the QL results, but for the nine years of the RIFC, the top seed has only won the playoffs once – and that was my team in 2005. The #6 seed has won three times, the #2 and #3 seeds have each won twice, and the #5 seed won once. So while it’s a maddening experience for top seeds, it’s a time of hope for all the others. On any given weekend…
In this year’s RIFC, the top seed is Holt, who dominated all season long, averaging almost 170 points per week, more than 25 points better than the weekly average for any other team. Can he buck the trend? He won from the #5 seed slot last year, but…
11/19 - It looked like the golden boy was going to pull off another miracle finish last night, but he came up a few feet short on the final pass. Both teams are now 7-3 and should cruise into the postseason, barring a meltdown in the last six weeks. But the result could influence where some of those postseason games are played.
Football Pickoff was fairly balanced this weekend, with 53% of slates posting positive scores. The top score of +582 was posted by RJ2013, who missed only two games and successfully doubled Oakland over Houston.
Yesterday, I released sortable NBA stats for two more daily contest sites, FanThrowdown and DraftDay. If you register at any of the affiliated contest sites, please use the links above. Links for all of the daily contest statistical data – including daily point summaries, sortable stats, and individual player detail pages – are in the hoops section of the left menu panel.
11/15 - If you use the sortable NBA stats, you may have noticed some minor adjustments over the past few days. In particular, the individual player pages have been reformatted to exclude some obsolete game data and to add some extra statistical details (by hovering the cursor over any point value). But the biggest change is that data gathering for the sortable stats, player pages, and daily point summaries is now totally automated. Updated salaries for daily contests should now be incorporated in the sortable stats at 10:45pm ET nightly. Point totals for each night’s games should be updated by 4am ET.
Next week, I hope to release data for two more daily contest affiliates. Assuming that all goes well, I have plans to add support for a couple more game sites in early December. So by mid-December, I hope to provide statistical analysis for seven different daily contest sites.
11/12 - It was a tough weekend for Football Pickoff, as only 33% of active slates posted positive scores. The top score was a monster, though, as LadyLazarus posted 12 correct picks for 637 points, almost 200 points over the runner-up for the weekend. Since this result raised her season total from -185 to 452, you might say that LadyLazarus was raised from the dead – at least for now.
There are only three weeks to go in the regular season of the RIFC leagues. Eight of fourteen teams make the playoffs, including the top six teams by W-L record, plus two other teams with the most points scored over the season. Typically, a winning record is sufficient to advance; in the last five years, only one winning team (14-12) failed to advance in the top RIFC league. So if you’re in an RIFC league, keep pressing for those wins!
11/5 - Only 46% of active slates produced a positive score in Football Pickoff this weekend, but the carnage would have been a lot more severe if Seattle hadn’t recovered to win in overtime, as that was a 90/10 payoff game. The top score of the week was +418 from WK, who evidently foresaw the injury to Aaron Rodgers and doubled Chicago over Green Bay, picking up 214 points on Monday night (164 for the game, plus a 50 point bonus for being his 10th correct pick).
The first week of NBA action has produced some team surprises. None of Philly, Minnesota, Phoenix, or Toronto were expected to be very competitive this year, but that group is collectively 10-4 so far. Meanwhile, four of the presumptive contenders in the NBA East – Miami, Brooklyn, Chicago, and New York – are collectively 6-7. I’m expect the world will mean-revert over the rest of the season, but some of those results – particularly when some of the first grouping beat those in the second – were eyebrow raising.
I’ve been working diligently in the background on website coding, automating some of the processing that was still somewhat manual. It’s tedious work with little outward evidence so far, but will eventually allow for more timely and more expanded statistical coverage. Stay tuned.
10/29 - This was a big weekend for Football Pickoff, with 71% of all active slates posting positive scores, and two slates running the table at 13-0. Congrats to cfox69, whose score of +638 was only 7 points below the maximum possible score for the week.
The RIHC drafts are now complete. A consolidated summary of all four drafts is here. Now we just have to play the season.
I’ve got a lot of work to do on the setup of NBA stats processing for the new season. For now, I’m currently set up with sortable stats for the three daily contest sites that I have had affiliations with: FanDuel, DraftStreet, and StarStreet. I hope to add affiliations with several other daily contest sites this season. But before expanding, I really need to upgrade the underpinnings of the sortable stats processing, much of which hasn’t really changed in more than a decade. In particular, I need to automate a lot more. So while the outward signs of enhancement might not be evident in the short term, the underlying effort will be significant. And I think the work will have some carryover benefits for future baseball processing as well.
But it will be a lot of work. “Fun” work – but work nonetheless.
10/22 - So Josh Freeman defines his Vikings debut as “a hair off?” That’s “Kojak” hair off, IMHO. (Probably skewing a bit old with a Kojak reference. Maybe “Heisenberg” would be a better contemporary choice.)
Football Pickoff slates were also a hair off this weekend, as 55% of active slates posted negative scores. The top score of the week was +426 by system 1, but even that slate had four incorrect picks.
The RIHC draft is nearing the midpoint, and rationales are now being posted. Links to the draft itself are shown in the Oct. 18 blurb below.
10/18 - The various RIHC hoops drafts are now underway. If you want to follow these drafts in progress, here are the links:
In addition, RIHC managers will be posting rationales for each pick at the RotoGuru Hoops Forum. These will start after the second round is completed, and will be posted on a two-round lag (approximately).
10/15 - Week #6 was a kinder, gentler week for Football Pickoff, as 58% of active slates had positive scores. The top slate of the weekend was travismurray2, with 13 correct picks, including a double of San Diego on Monday night. Almost one-tenth of all active slates earned bonus points this week (with 12 or more correct picks).
The four RIHC Hoops drafts will be starting soon. I’ll post links to those drafts as they emerge.
The fantasy football gods were not kind to me this weekend, as I lost all of my matchups while losing four starters to injuries on my two teams, including DeMarco Murray and Randall Cobb. I think I may need to move on to hoops soon – although in the RIFC, the standings are still pretty wide open, with 5 teams tied at 8-4, and a bunch of other teams close behind and definitely in the mix.
10/8 - I guess the Jets don’t suck after all. Or maybe Atlanta does. Either way, the Falcons are already 4 games behind New Orleans in the NFC South. For that matter, NFC South teams have only won a total of 7 games in five weeks, and New Orleans has five of them.
Geno Smith: 16/20, 21 yds rushing, 199 yds passing, 3 TDs, no turnovers. Note to Mark Sanchez – dust off that resume. Then again, his recent resume might not be a very strong selling point. Pull out the version that stops a few years ago.
Only 42 of Football Pickoff slates posted positive scores this weekend. Congrats to Mauison, who picked 12 of 14 correctly for the weekend’s best score of 446. Interestingly, heading into the last two games of the weekend, he was 12-0.
10/3 - The September surge by the Indians ran out of gas as soon as we reached October. Given the history of the franchise, this still has to be considered a successful season. And tonight, Clevelanders get a Thursday night football game by the lake against the Bills. If the Browns win, they’ll be 3-2. So much for tanking this season. (The cynic would say that the Browns, in search of high draft picks for 2014, can’t even tank properly.)
GuruGolf prize notifications were emailed this morning. Some of them bounced back as undeliverable, so if you think you should have received one, please send me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Thanks to Mike Maliskas for suggesting today’s quote. I’m not sure if it’s nonsensical or unassailable.
RotoGuru is produced by Dave Hall (a.k.a. the Guru), an avid fantasy sports player. He is not employed by any of the fantasy sports games discussed within this site, and all opinions expressed are solely his own. Questions or comments are welcome, and should be emailed to
RotoGuru is produced by Dave Hall (a.k.a. the Guru), an avid fantasy sports player. He is not employed by any of the fantasy sports games discussed within this site, and all opinions expressed are solely his own. Questions or comments are welcome, and should be emailed toGuru<email@example.com>.
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